Why Ukraine’s new Patriot deal won’t solve its biggest air defense problem? Expert explains
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The US has approved the sale of 500 PAC-3 interceptor missiles to Ukraine, with delivery only after 2030. The $2.1 billion deal will not solve Ukraine’s problem with Russia’s mass ballistic strikes, aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap said on 24 Channel.
Anti-ballistic defense is an acute problem for Ukraine, because Russia is knocking out its power grid before the cold sets in. On 7 November, Russia hit Ukraine with 36 ballistic missiles and 172 drones, striking mainly energy facilities across 13 regions and, just before the so-called peace talks, targeting one of Kyiv’s largest bridges with four ballistic missiles, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Europe’s cupboard is nearly bare
Kryvolap said that European stocks of air-defense systems are exhausted, and the US production cannot keep pace with the scale of Russia’s attacks. Even swap arrangements with partners cannot close the sky over Ukraine’s cities.
He was skeptical of a plan to take PAC-2 systems from Spanish stocks in exchange for deliveries after 2030, saying Europe has already handed over nearly everything it can spare.
“What the Germans and the Dutch could give without losing their own defense capability, they have already given almost all of it. To hand over more would push beyond the critical limits of their national security. Handing over a few missiles will not solve the problem of defense against Russian ballistics at all,” Kryvolap said.
The math does not work
By Kryvolap’s estimate, Russia launches about 100 to 120 ballistic missiles at Ukraine every month, while the manufacturers Raytheon and Lockheed Martin can turn out at most 750 PAC-3 missiles this year.
Even a sharp increase in output, he said, would not yield the numbers Ukraine needs to shoot down the attacks.
“750 missiles a year is absolutely too few to effectively repel the weapons the Russians are coming at us with,” he explained.
Ukraine’s own record bears out the squeeze: in October it shot down only about 7% of Russia’s ballistic missiles, the hardest target for its air defenses, as the US stopped supply of the Patriot interceptors amid the war against Iran.
